Why Obama will win the Election

A good friend of mine told me Friday that he believed that McCain would win the 2008 election, and he had a well thought out explanation as to why. Well, I disagreed, but I have not really thought out why. In no particular order, here are my reasons:

  1. Polls. I'm not sure how much to trust the national polls, but if they are accurate, Obama will win by a large margin.

  2. George Bush. Almost everyone is tired of George Bush and his various wars. Despite McCain's best efforts to the contrary, many still see him as a continuation of Bush's legacy.

  3. Youth. Obama has a power to inspire, and this has no where been more deeply felt than the young voters.

  4. Race. This issue is double edged, on one hand, the black vote, and to a lesser extent the hispanic and other 'colored' voters will overwhelmingly vote for Obama. On the other hand, there are many who still hold on to race based opinions, and will vote against Obama, even if they would have voted for him if he had been white.

  5. First time voters. The Obama campaign has worked hard to insure that all of their supporters register to vote, and then actually go vote (and vote early). Only about 60% of Americans usually vote in an election, leaving 40% of the vote untapped. Obama is doing a very good job accessing that percentage.

  6. Sarah Palin. Deserved or not, there will be many people voting for anyone but Palin.

  7. Technology. Obama is leading in two ways through technology. First, he has the overwhelming support of the tech community (based on his comprehensive technology plan, and his understanding of how things work). Second, his campaign has taken full advantage of the internet, text messaging, blogs, websites, full disclosures of his initiatives in PDF, etc. There is a behind-the-scenes web application put into place that keeps everything organized and connected.

  8. Lengthy Primary. The primaries took Obama to many out of the way places he would not have otherwise visited. I personally know a few people who changed their vote from republican to democratic after hearing him speak in person.

  9. Age. I believe that Obama would be the youngest president, if elected. This is in contrast to McCain who would be the oldest. This may be a deciding factor for some.

  10. McCain's War history. Although un-evident, and unlikely, there are some who fear that McCain's time as a POW had affected him adversely, making him unfit to lead the country.

  11. The Press. For whatever reason, the press absolutely loves Obama. (good looks, good speaker, calm and collected ... everything they admire in a journalist (maybe)).

All of these are little points, but I think they will all add up to a win for Barak Obama.

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